Is It Too Late To Buy GE Vernova Stock?

Core Viewpoint - GE Vernova is experiencing an upward trend following its investor day, driven by improved medium-term guidance and enhanced cash flow narrative, indicating potential for growth despite premium valuation [2][4][10] Financial Guidance - Management anticipates approximately $52 billion in revenue and a 20% adjusted EBITDA margin by 2028, up from $45 billion and 14% previously, indicating a stronger earnings and cash flow base than previously expected [4][10] Backlog and Order Trends - GE Vernova has secured 18 GW of gas turbine contracts year-to-date and expects around 80 GW of combined slot reservations and backlog by year-end, aiming to increase total backlog from approximately $135 billion to about $200 billion by 2028 [5][10] Cash Flow and Capital Returns - The company projects at least $22 billion in cumulative free cash flow from 2025 to 2028, up from an earlier minimum of $14 billion, with a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share announced for Q1 2026 and an increase in buyback authorization from $6 billion to $10 billion [6][10] Current Financial Performance - Revenues have risen approximately 9.4% over the past twelve months, from around $34 billion to $38 billion, with an 11.8% year-on-year increase in the most recent quarter to $10.0 billion, although operating margins remain weak at around 3.7% [7][10] Balance Sheet Strength - GE Vernova is debt-free with cash and equivalents of $7.9 billion against $54 billion of total assets, resulting in a cash-to-assets ratio of 14.6%, which supports its investment strategy and capital returns [8][10] Valuation Perspective - The stock appears expensive based on current sales or profit metrics, as it is assessed on projected earnings rather than current earnings, but there remains upside potential if management meets its targets [9][10] Investment Conclusion - GE Vernova represents a high-quality energy-transition platform with solid revenue growth and strong financial stability, despite current weak profitability, suggesting significant potential for equity value growth [10]