Serve Robotics Gains 28% in a Month: Is the Rally Still Worth Chasing?

Core Insights - Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV) has seen a significant stock increase of 27.6% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks Computers – IT Services industry, the broader technology sector, and the S&P 500, driven by optimism around autonomous delivery and potential U.S. government support for robotics [1][4][21] Company Performance - The company has deployed over 1,000 robots, aiming to reach 2,000 by the end of 2025, which is expected to enhance network efficiency and operational learning [7][10] - Delivery volume has increased by 66% sequentially and over 300% year-over-year, with revenue rising 209% from the previous year [8][9] - The company has expanded its coverage to over 3,600 locations across major U.S. cities, significantly increasing its market reach [9] Strategic Partnerships and Market Position - Serve Robotics has integrated with major food delivery platforms, Uber and DoorDash, which together account for over 80% of U.S. delivery demand, enhancing robot utilization [12] - The acquisition of Vayu Robotics is expected to strengthen Serve's AI capabilities and reduce long-term data infrastructure costs, creating a "physical AI flywheel" effect [13] Financial Metrics and Challenges - Despite the growth, the company reported a GAAP net loss of $33 million in Q3 2025, with a total loss of $67 million for the first nine months of 2025 [16] - The current valuation stands at approximately 46.7X forward 12-month sales, which is high given the expected revenue base of only $2.5 million in 2025 [19] - Analysts have revised loss estimates for 2025 and 2026, indicating a widening of expected losses despite strong revenue growth projections [20] Future Outlook - The company maintains a strong liquidity position with $210 million in cash and marketable securities, allowing for continued expansion without immediate profitability pressure [15] - While the long-term vision of a nationwide robot logistics network appears achievable, the near-term outlook is complicated by widening losses and high valuation multiples [21]