野村国际：欧元将受益于加息预期 但不太可能突破1.20美元

Core Viewpoint - Nomura International indicates that the euro is likely to benefit from traders digesting the possibility of an interest rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) next year, although the euro's rise may not exceed the 1.20 USD level due to limited potential increases in rates [1][2]. Group 1 - The basic expectation is that the ECB will maintain interest rates unchanged until 2026, but if the market begins to price in a more hawkish outlook, the euro will clearly benefit [2]. - The euro/USD pair has risen approximately 1% this week, driven by hawkish comments from ECB official Isabel Schnabel, leading traders to bet on a greater than 50% chance of a rate hike next year [2]. - There is potential for the euro to rise, but reaching levels significantly above 1.20 may require a more structural shift in market sentiment [2]. Group 2 - Other currencies such as the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Canadian dollar, and Swedish krona have also benefited to varying degrees from the expectations of interest rate hikes [2].