【首席声音】张忆东前瞻2026：中国牛市风雨无阻，美股AI浪潮，很可能是一个刚性泡沫

Group 1 - The core theme of the article is the optimistic outlook for the Chinese stock market despite short-term fluctuations, emphasizing a long-term bullish trend driven by structural changes in the economy and capital markets [9][10][56] - The current macroeconomic context is characterized by "great power competition," with the U.S. relying on debt expansion to drive market prosperity, while the Chinese government maintains a healthier balance sheet with a national debt of 34.5 trillion RMB, only 26% of GDP [2][3][29] - The U.S. faces significant debt repayment pressures, with a federal debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 120%, while AI-related investments contribute over 40% to U.S. GDP, indicating a potential bubble in the AI sector [2][18][19] Group 2 - China is entering a historical opportunity period, aiming to achieve a per capita GDP of $20,000 by 2035, which requires an average GDP growth rate of 4.17% over the next decade [22][24] - The real estate sector's contribution to GDP has significantly decreased from nearly 30% to around 13%, suggesting that the worst phase of real estate drag may be over [3][31][32] - The Chinese government is focusing on "equity finance" and capital markets to revitalize the asset side of the economy, with a notable increase in the proportion of stocks held by the Central Huijin Investment [4][5][39] Group 3 - The capital market is expected to play a pivotal role in China's economic transformation, similar to the real estate sector's role over the past two decades, leading to a long-term bull market characterized by steady upward trends rather than rapid surges [55][56] - The anticipated return of foreign capital to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is significant, with expectations of a structural inflow starting in early 2026, particularly in technology sectors [6][64] - Investment strategies should focus on growth sectors, particularly AI and technology, as well as new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, while also considering value investments in high-dividend stocks and strategic sectors benefiting from geopolitical dynamics [66][71][72]