沪指险守3900点 两大靴子待落地

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a weak trend with a lack of clear leading sectors, characterized by a "pre-event wait-and-see" sentiment ahead of key policy announcements and external events [1][8][9]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.23% at 3900.5 points, while the ChiNext Index fell 0.02% to 3209 points. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.29% [2]. - Trading volume decreased to 1.79 trillion yuan, following a brief increase above 2 trillion yuan earlier in the week [4]. Sector Analysis - The real estate sector showed strength, with a 2.53% increase, while other sectors like banking, power equipment, and electronics saw declines [5][6]. - Defensive sectors and event-driven themes are expected to alternate in activity, but overall profitability remains limited [11][12]. Investment Trends - Investors are shifting from high-valuation growth sectors to lower-valuation sectors with clear policy or recovery expectations, such as real estate and consumer goods [13]. - The market is currently in a dual vacuum period, awaiting policy direction and external events, leading to cautious trading behavior [9][10]. Key Events to Watch - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision are critical events that could influence market direction [8][10]. - The market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase until these events provide clearer signals [11][12].