The Coming Health Insurance Shock: These Moves Can Buffer the Shock

Core Insights - Rising healthcare costs are expected to create a financial shock for households in 2026, primarily affecting middle-income families due to higher insurance premiums [3][4]. Group 1: Projected Premium Increases - Premiums are projected to rise sharply in 2026 due to expiring Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, increasing medical costs, and insurer pricing pressures [3]. - The median proposed increase in premiums is estimated to be around 18% to 20%, driven by high-cost specialty drugs, rising hospital and outpatient prices, and broader inflation in wages and staffing [5]. Group 2: Impact of ACA Subsidies - If enhanced ACA subsidies expire at the end of 2025, out-of-pocket premiums for individuals and families could spike significantly, with estimates suggesting an increase of $300 to $600 per month for households earning between $60,000 to $90,000 [5][6]. - Even if Congress extends the current subsidies, they may only mitigate the underlying cost drivers that are pushing premiums higher, such as provider pricing and administrative costs [7].