顶级经济学家马克・赞迪发出新的衰退预警

Core Viewpoint - Economist Mark Zandi expresses concerns about a weakening labor market and potential recession risks [1][5] Group 1: Labor Market Conditions - The unemployment rate has gradually increased from 4.0% in January to 4.4% in September, reaching a four-year high, indicating more Americans are struggling to find jobs [3][7] - The unemployment rate for young workers aged 20 to 24 is particularly high at 9.2%, more than double the overall unemployment rate [3][7] - Zandi attributes the slowdown in the labor market to the implementation of global tariffs by President Donald Trump in April [3][7] Group 2: Job Openings and Layoffs - The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report shows that the layoff rate increased slightly from 1.1% in September to 1.2% in October, while the hiring rate remained stable at 3.2% [3][7] Group 3: Economic Signals - The current labor market is characterized by "low hiring, low layoffs," as defined by economists and analysts [4][8] - A positive signal for the economy is reflected in a slight increase in the small business confidence index reported by the National Federation of Independent Business, with more employers planning to hire in early next year [4][8]