渗透率破30%触发拐点！博世重构商用车战略 押注2027年氢能爆发

Core Insights - The rapid development of China's new energy commercial vehicle market presents significant opportunities for multinational parts manufacturers like Bosch, which aims to transition from a parts supplier to a strategic partner in the transformation of China's commercial vehicle sector [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles in China has exceeded expectations, reaching over 30% as of October 2025, doubling from 10% two years prior, and significantly outpacing the growth of passenger vehicles [2] - Bosch predicts that the penetration rate will exceed 50% by 2030, ahead of the targets set in the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0" [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competition in the commercial vehicle sector is shifting from price-based competition to a focus on total cost of ownership (TCO) optimization and system integration capabilities, driven by user demand for scenario-based solutions [3] - Local supply chain companies like CATL and Fudi Power are forming integrated supply chain alliances to define core standards for batteries, electric drives, and chassis, while multinational giants like Bosch are restructuring to compete in this new landscape [3] Group 3: Strategic Restructuring - Bosch is restructuring its business model by integrating its automotive operations into a smart mobility group, focusing on comprehensive solutions that encompass drive systems, chassis systems, thermal management, and intelligent driving assistance [4] - The establishment of the commercial vehicle group aims to move beyond a single parts perspective to address whole vehicle and user needs, leveraging Bosch's expertise in diverse powertrains [4] Group 4: Product Development - Bosch has launched two integrated platforms, "Super Heavy Truck" and "Super Light Truck," which combine diverse powertrains, motion control, and intelligent driving assistance [7] - The company emphasizes differentiated competition by introducing more efficient and lightweight electric drive axle products, and focusing on L2+ level driving assistance tailored for commercial vehicles [7] Group 5: Hydrogen Strategy - Bosch views hydrogen as a long-term strategic focus, with a hydrogen power base established in Chongqing, which is the largest of its kind globally [8] - The cost of Bosch's hydrogen fuel cell technology has significantly decreased from 16,000 yuan per kilowatt in 2021 to 2,000 yuan per kilowatt, with expectations for commercial vehicles powered by hydrogen to scale up post-2027 [8] Group 6: Global Expansion - Bosch aims to support Chinese commercial vehicle companies in expanding overseas, with projections indicating that China's commercial vehicle exports could exceed 1 million units by 2025 [9] - The company is collaborating with Chinese manufacturers to create customized solutions for markets in South America and Africa, addressing local challenges and enhancing brand competitiveness [9]