Why Is Venture Global (VG) Down 12% Since Last Earnings Report?

Core Insights - Venture Global's Q3 2025 earnings report showed diluted earnings per share of 16 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 22 cents, but improved from a loss of 15 cents in the same quarter last year [2] - Total revenues for the quarter reached $3.3 billion, significantly up from $926 million year-over-year, and exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.2 billion [2] - The company experienced a 12% decline in share price over the past month, underperforming the S&P 500, raising questions about future performance leading up to the next earnings release [1] Financial Performance - Operating income for Q3 2025 was $1.32 billion, a substantial increase from $189 million in Q3 2024, driven by higher LNG sales volumes from the Plaquemines project [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $1.5 billion, up 273% from $283 million year-over-year, primarily due to increased LNG sales volumes [6] - The cost of sales rose to $1.4 billion from $272 million in the previous year, with total operating expenses increasing to $2 billion from $737 million [7] LNG Export Activity - Venture Global exported 100 cargoes in Q2 2025, a significant increase from 31 cargoes in the same period last year, with total LNG volumes exported reaching 373 trillion British thermal units (TBtu), up from 100 TBtu year-over-year [5] Balance Sheet - As of September 30, 2025, the company had $1.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents, with a net long-term debt of $31.7 billion [8] Future Outlook - For the full year 2025, the company has narrowed its Adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $6.35-$6.5 billion, down from a previous range of $6.4-$6.8 billion, and expects total cargoes across all projects to be between 382-386 [9] - Recent estimate revisions have shown a downward trend, with a consensus estimate shift of -6.19%, leading to a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell) for the stock [10][12] Industry Context - Venture Global operates within the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, where another player, Coterra Energy, has seen a slight gain of 0.3% over the past month [13]