3 Airline Stocks to Keep an Eye on Despite Industry Headwinds

Core Viewpoint - The Zacks Transportation - Airline industry has faced significant challenges due to the longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history, which lasted 43 days, leading to flight cancellations and operational disruptions. Despite these challenges, certain companies are expected to show resilience through growth strategies and operational efficiency [1][2]. Industry Overview - The Zacks Airline industry involves transporting passengers and cargo globally, with operators maintaining a fleet of mainline jets and regional planes. The industry includes both legacy carriers and low-cost airlines, and its performance is closely tied to the overall economy. Following the pandemic, air travel demand has improved, and there is a focus on boosting cargo revenues [3]. Factors Affecting Industry Performance - The recent government shutdown caused significant operational strain, with Delta Air Lines estimating a reduction in pre-tax profitability of nearly $200 million, or about 25 cents per share, for the December quarter due to the shutdown [4]. - Despite the shutdown, passenger volumes peaked during the Thanksgiving holiday, with a record 3.13 million passengers screened on a single day, indicating a positive trend for holiday travel [5]. - Labor costs have increased, with Delta reporting a 7% year-over-year rise in salaries and related costs in the first nine months of 2025, which is limiting bottom-line growth due to labor shortages and increased bargaining power of labor groups [6]. Industry Ranking and Earnings Outlook - The Zacks Airline industry currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 150, placing it in the bottom 38% of 243 Zacks industries, indicating a negative earnings outlook for the group [7][9]. - Earnings estimates for the industry have declined, with a 21.6% decrease for 2025 and an 8.3% decrease for 2026 over the past year, reflecting analysts' pessimism about earnings growth potential [10]. Market Performance - Over the past year, the Zacks Transportation - Airline industry has gained 8.2%, underperforming the S&P 500's rise of 14.6%, while the broader sector has declined by 6.8% [11]. Valuation Metrics - The industry has a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.54X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 5.3X and the sector's 1.31X. Historically, the industry has traded between 0.31X and 1.09X over the past five years [14]. Notable Companies to Watch - LATAM Airlines is benefiting from a lean cost structure and strategic partnerships, with an impressive earnings surprise history, averaging a 29.8% surprise over the last four quarters [16][17]. - SkyWest operates as a regional airline and has seen a 3.6% stock gain over the past six months, with a 7.2% upward revision in earnings estimates for 2026 [20][21]. - Delta has consistently surpassed earnings estimates, with an average beat of 8.9% over the last four quarters, and has gained 30% in stock value over the past six months [23][26].