Does MercadoLibre's Expanding Credit Book Signal Mounting Risk Ahead?

Core Insights - MercadoLibre's lending arm is significantly enhancing user engagement within Mercado Pago, with rapid credit portfolio expansion shaping the company's operational profile [1] - The total credit portfolio surged 83% year-over-year to $11 billion in Q3 2025, with growth across consumer, merchant, and asset-backed segments [2] - Fintech revenues are projected to reach $3.63 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting a 45% year-over-year increase, indicating robust credit-driven revenue growth [3] Credit Portfolio and Financial Performance - The credit card segment is increasingly dominating originations, leading to a shift towards longer-duration products [2] - Net Interest Margin After Losses decreased to 21% due to rising funding costs in Argentina, while asset quality remained stable with 6.8% of loans 15-90 days past due and 17.6% over 90 days past due [2][4] - The expansion of the credit book may introduce margin strain despite improved user engagement, with longer-duration credit cards and rising funding costs impacting profitability [4] Competitive Landscape - Competition is intensifying from Sea Limited and Nu Holdings, which are expanding their digital lending operations in Latin America, directly competing with MercadoLibre in key markets [5] - The aggressive expansion of Sea Limited and Nu Holdings may pressure MercadoLibre's credit pricing, acquisition costs, and lending margins [5][8] Stock Performance and Valuation - MercadoLibre's shares have declined 13.1% over the past six months, underperforming the Zacks Internet-Commerce industry and the Retail-Wholesale sector [6] - The stock is currently trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 2.9X, compared to the industry's 2.13X, with a Value Score of C [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q4 2025 earnings is $11.85 per share, indicating a 6.03% year-over-year decline [12]