Global Economic Outlook 2026: Financial System Risk; Trade, Public Debt, Geopolitical Uncertainties

Scope Ratings (Scope) has slightly revised up its global growth estimate for 2025 since June forecasting. The agency now sees global growth of 3.3% for this year before a resilient 3.2% next year (Table 1). Euro area-21 growth expectations remain moderate: 1.4% next year after the 1.5% this year. A pick-up is foreseen in the German economy (to 1.0% growth next year) alongside moderate growth in France (1.0%) and Italy (0.7%). The European economy nevertheless continues to be buoyed by strong recovery ac ...