The Motley Fool·2025-12-10 18:17Core Insights - The cruise line industry is experiencing a disparity in stock performance, with Norwegian Cruise Line (NCL) underperforming significantly, trading 27% lower in 2025, while Viking Holdings has seen a 54% increase this year [1][4][10] - Royal Caribbean and Carnival are performing moderately with single-digit gains, indicating a mixed recovery across the industry [2][8] Performance Comparison - NCL is the worst performer in the cruise industry, while Viking is the best performer, highlighting a significant gap in performance [1][4] - NCL's revenue growth has been between 3% and 5%, the weakest since the resumption of sailings post-pandemic, while Viking reported a 19% increase in the same period [8][14] Factors Influencing Performance - NCL's underperformance is attributed to its smaller scale compared to competitors, limiting its marketing and volume advantages [9] - Viking's luxury positioning and older, wealthier demographic make it less vulnerable to economic downturns, contributing to its strong performance [13][14] Analyst Ratings and Market Sentiment - Goldman Sachs downgraded NCL from buy to neutral, reducing its price target from $23 to $21 due to concerns about supply outstripping demand [16] - Conversely, Goldman upgraded Viking from neutral to buy, raising its price target from $66 to $78, reflecting confidence in its differentiated market position [17] Valuation Metrics - NCL is currently trading at a forward P/E of 7, considered cheap, while Viking is at a higher valuation with a forward P/E of 21 [18] - Royal Caribbean and Carnival have forward profit multiples of 13 and 11, respectively, indicating a middle ground in valuation compared to NCL and Viking [18]