How to Play Pagaya Stock as It Remains Resilient Through Cycles?

Core Insights - Pagaya Technologies (PGY) has established itself as a stable player in the fintech sector, leveraging AI-based underwriting and a broad capital network to navigate varying credit conditions and consumer spending patterns [1][8] Business Model - Pagaya operates primarily as a technology and data platform, connecting lenders with institutional investors, which allows for growth in loan volumes while minimizing credit risks [2][14] - The company has diversified its business model beyond personal loans into auto lending and point-of-sale financing, reducing exposure to cyclical risks [10] - Pagaya has built a network of over 135 institutional funding partners, utilizing forward flow agreements to secure alternative funding sources during market stress [11][17] Financial Performance - In 2025, Pagaya reported three consecutive quarters of positive GAAP net income, a significant improvement from previous losses, with a year-over-year network volume growth of 10.5% [3][8] - The company anticipates a network volume of $10.5-$10.75 billion for 2025, supported by funding diversification [3][8] Stock Performance - PGY shares have surged 167.3% year-to-date, outperforming the industry and the S&P 500 Index, which saw declines and growth of 4.2% and 18.7%, respectively [4][8] Valuation - PGY stock is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales (P/S) ratio of 1.29X, significantly below the industry average of 3.35X, indicating an attractive valuation [21] Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Analysts have revised upward the earnings estimates for Pagaya to $3.10 and $3.41 per share for 2025 and 2026, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 273.5% and 10% [23] - Revenue estimates for 2025 and 2026 are projected at $1.32 billion and $1.57 billion, implying year-over-year growth of 28.4% and 19.2% [27]