人民币持续走强 上市公司扎堆套保对冲汇率波动风险

Group 1 - The US dollar index has declined by over 8% this year, leading to increased demand for foreign exchange hedging among companies involved in overseas business as the RMB approaches the critical 7.0 exchange rate [1][2] - Several A-share companies have significantly increased their foreign exchange hedging limits, with China Shipbuilding announcing a trading limit of up to $24 billion and CATL adjusting its hedging limit to a maximum of 410 billion yuan [2] - Over 30 A-share companies have announced plans to engage in foreign exchange hedging to mitigate risks associated with currency fluctuations, particularly in light of concerns over potential reductions in foreign exchange earnings from exports [2][3] Group 2 - The demand for currency risk management is rising as companies face various risks related to policies, demand, exchange rates, and supply chains in different regions [3] - For export-dependent manufacturing firms, RMB appreciation may weaken price competitiveness, while industries reliant on imported raw materials could benefit from lower procurement costs due to currency fluctuations [3] - The primary currencies for pricing and settlement in foreign-related business among listed companies remain USD, EUR, GBP, and JPY, with the SWIFT data indicating that as of September 2025, the international payment shares for USD, EUR, and GBP are 47.79%, 22.77%, and 7.38% respectively [3] Group 3 - The RMB has strengthened against the USD since late November, driven by expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a significant decline in the dollar's value [4] - Analysts predict that the RMB may experience a strong performance in 2025, potentially breaking the 7.0 mark against the USD due to a favorable external environment and a projected current account surplus [4] - By the end of 2026, if the annualized exchange rate volatility remains between 3.0% and 4.0%, the RMB/USD exchange rate could rise to the range of 6.70 to 6.80 [4]