Fed Cut Already Priced In, Powell’s Tone and 2026 Shift Bullish for Crypto: Nansen

Core Insights - The focus of the market is shifting from the anticipated Fed rate cut to the tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the upcoming leadership transition in early 2026 [3][9]. Federal Reserve's Approach - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement a 25-basis-point rate cut, maintaining a data-dependent approach due to the lag in labor-market data [4]. - The terminal rate projection is likely to remain around 3.0%, indicating a divided committee [4]. Leadership Transition - The delayed announcement of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair, expected in early 2026, could be a bullish development for crypto markets, suggesting a shift towards a more growth-friendly stance [5][9]. Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Bitcoin is facing critical resistance at the $91,000 level, with expectations that it will trade around this zone post-FOMC meeting rather than breaking out decisively [5][9]. - The current economic environment includes weakening labor conditions, rising layoffs, and inflation pressures linked to tariff policies, with limited fresh data due to the U.S. government shutdown [6]. Market Expectations - Economists largely anticipate another quarter-point cut, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating an 89.4% probability of a 25-bps move, which would lower the federal funds rate to the 3.75%–4% range [7].