美联储声明对比及点阵图要点：异议创下6年纪录 消失4个月的说法重现

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting, with three dissenting votes, marking the first time since 2019 that such a number of dissenters has occurred [1][10]. Group 1: Decision and Voting - The latest meeting resulted in a 9 to 3 vote, indicating ongoing divisions within the committee [2][10]. - The dissenting votes have accumulated to eight over the last four meetings, which is equivalent to the total dissent from the previous 47 meetings [2][10]. - Stephen Milan has opposed the decision for the third consecutive time, advocating for a 50 basis point cut [2][10]. Group 2: Policy Statements - The statement reintroduced the consideration of the "magnitude and timing" of adjustments to the federal funds rate, a phrase not used since July [1][10]. - The Federal Reserve announced the initiation of Treasury bill purchases to maintain reserve levels [2][10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Projections - The "dot plot" indicates significant divergence among decision-makers, with a median forecast showing one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027 [2][10]. - Seven decision-makers prefer to keep rates unchanged throughout 2026, while eight support at least two rate cuts [2][10]. - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, which provided the basis for the recent rate cut [11]. Group 4: Recent Data and Adjustments - The committee acknowledges that employment growth may have been overstated by approximately 60,000 jobs in recent months [11]. - The Federal Reserve's commitment to achieving full employment and returning inflation to the 2% target remains firm [13]. Group 5: Interest Rate Adjustments - As of December 10, the federal funds rate target range has been lowered to 3.5% - 3.75% from the previous range of 3.75% - 4% [11][12]. - The committee will carefully evaluate subsequent data and changing forecasts when considering further adjustments to the federal funds rate [3][11]. Group 6: Long-term Rate Projections - The median projections for the federal funds rate at the end of each year are as follows: - 2025: 3.625% (range 3.375% to 3.875%) - 2026: 3.375% (range 2.125% to 3.875%) - 2027: 3.125% (range 2.375% to 3.875%) - 2028: 3.125% (range 2.625% to 3.875%) - Long-term: 3.000% (range 2.625% to 3.875%) [19].