美联储如期降息25个基点，预计2026年仅降息一次

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations for a "hawkish cut" [1] - This marks the third consecutive rate cut by the Federal Reserve, totaling a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points for the year [2] - The decision was passed with a vote of 9 in favor and 3 against, indicating a split within the committee, with notable dissent from the Kansas City and Chicago Fed presidents [2][3] - The Fed's statement highlighted that further rate cuts would depend on evidence of deterioration in the labor market [4] - The threshold for future rate cuts has been raised, with the timing and magnitude of cuts now contingent on changes in economic outlook [5] - The "dot plot" indicates that the Fed expects only one more rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027, with rates projected to return to a long-term level of 3% [6] - The committee raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 by 0.5 percentage points to 2.3%, while still anticipating inflation to remain above the 2% target until 2028 [8] - The Fed announced plans to resume purchasing U.S. Treasury securities, starting with $40 billion in short-term bonds, following concerns about pressures in the overnight funding market [8] - There are concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, as recent comments from the White House suggest dissatisfaction with the pace of rate cuts [8]