“我给大家唱首鸽”——12月FOMC点评+记者会纪要（标红标黑版）

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the 25bps rate cut was expected, but the dot plot and press conference information were more dovish than the market anticipated, reflecting concerns about the labor market and inflation risks [1][2][3] - The dot plot maintained the expectation of one rate cut in both 2026 and 2027, with GDP growth forecasts for 2026 being raised by 0.5 percentage points to 2.3% [4][5][50] - The press conference emphasized the softening labor market and downplayed inflation risks, suggesting a return to the "employment risk" narrative seen in previous meetings [6][7][52] Group 2 - The FOMC's decision to cut rates was influenced by the softening labor market and the anticipated decline in inflation, despite the lack of comprehensive data [2][48] - There was an increase in dissenting votes during the meeting, with three members opposing the rate cut, indicating a growing divide in opinions within the committee [2][48][60] - The future rate cut path signals a "wait and see" approach, with the language in the statement suggesting a pause in rate cuts until clearer economic signals emerge [2][48][49] Group 3 - The RMP (Reserve Management Program) will begin on December 12, with an initial purchase amount of $40 billion per month, slightly exceeding expectations [1][8][54] - The RMP aims to ensure that the reserve levels align with the natural growth of the banking system, contrasting with previous quantitative easing measures [8][54] - The decision to initiate RMP is partly due to liquidity pressures in the repo market and anticipated tax season impacts on reserve levels [9][54]