国际航协：预计2026年全球可持续航空燃料产量为240万吨 产量增速放缓

Core Insights - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects that Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production will reach 1.9 million tons by 2025, nearly doubling from 1 million tons in 2024, with a further increase to 2.4 million tons in 2026 [1] - Despite the growth in SAF production, it will only account for 0.6% of total aviation fuel consumption in 2025, increasing to 0.8% in 2026 [1] - The current price of SAF is twice that of fossil fuel aviation fuel, and in some mandatory markets, it can be up to five times higher, leading to an additional fuel cost of $3.6 billion for the aviation industry in 2025 [1][2] Industry Challenges - The growth in SAF production has not met expectations, with poorly designed mandatory measures hindering progress in the nascent industry [1] - European and UK mandatory requirements for SAF have had negative impacts, failing to accelerate production and usage, resulting in significantly increased industry costs due to limited SAF capacity and supply chain monopolies [1] - The current policy framework in Europe is distorting the market, slowing down investment, and undermining efforts to expand SAF production capacity [2] Financial Implications - With only 1.9 million tons of SAF available in 2025, airlines are expected to pay a premium of $2.9 billion, with $1.4 billion attributed to the price premium of SAF over traditional jet fuel [2] - Airlines that committed to a 10% SAF usage target by 2030 may need to reassess their plans due to the inability to scale up SAF production as anticipated [2] - Current policies have not produced the expected results, prompting calls for regulatory adjustments to ensure long-term sustainability and scalability of SAF production, which could help reduce costs [2]