国联民生宏观:明年上半年美联储将进入一定的观望期
Ge Long Hui A P P·2025-12-11 00:18

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, has not shown a more hawkish stance contrary to market expectations, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy moving forward [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - Powell announced the repurchase of short-term bonds and maintained a dovish tone regarding interest rate cuts, suggesting decisions will be made based on economic data at each meeting [1] - The dot plot has shown a more dovish distribution compared to September, indicating a shift in the Fed's outlook [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcements, U.S. stocks and precious metals experienced significant gains, while the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields weakened temporarily [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The threshold for interest rate cuts has notably increased at current rate levels, with the Fed expected to enter a period of observation in the first half of next year, leading to a slower pace of policy changes [1] - Political discussions surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve are anticipated to intensify [1]