银河证券：对后续CPI的回升持谨慎乐观的预期

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in CPI since September is primarily driven by three factors: the weakening drag from rising vegetable prices, the rebound in prices of certain consumer goods and services due to domestic demand expansion policies, and the increase in gold jewelry prices influenced by international gold prices [1] Group 1: CPI Influencing Factors - The increase in vegetable prices has seen a reduction in its negative impact on the food component of CPI [1] - Domestic demand expansion policies have led to a rebound in prices for some consumer goods and services [1] - International gold prices have contributed to the rise in gold jewelry prices [1] Group 2: Future CPI Outlook - The supply of local vegetables in the south and increased supply of facility-grown vegetables in the north may alleviate market supply and demand tensions, potentially leading to a smaller increase in vegetable prices compared to November [1] - The ongoing drag from pork prices and stable growth in fresh fruit prices may slightly amplify the negative impact on food CPI [1] - To sustain the rebound in consumer goods and service prices, it may be necessary to further expand the scope of national subsidies and strengthen policies related to service consumption [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" identifies the expansion of high-quality consumer goods and service supply as a key support for the domestic demand strategy, leading to a cautiously optimistic outlook for future CPI increases [1]