中金缪延亮：黄金能否替代美元？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting dynamics of the international monetary system, highlighting the decline of the dollar's dominance and the resurgence of gold as a potential alternative asset, while emphasizing that a return to the gold standard is unlikely due to the changed global economic and political landscape [3][4][41]. Group 1: Historical Context of Gold and Currency - In the gold standard era, gold was the cornerstone of the international monetary system, facilitating unprecedented global economic prosperity [3]. - The Bretton Woods system established the dollar as the central currency, with gold relegated to a special commodity role for risk diversification [3][4]. - The collapse of the Bretton Woods system led to the rise of fiat currencies, with gold transitioning to an alternative asset with strategic reserve and inflation-hedging functions [6][10]. Group 2: Gold's Dual Attributes - Gold possesses both monetary and commodity attributes, serving as a natural currency due to its physical scarcity and historical significance [6][7]. - As a monetary asset, gold retains its value and is viewed as a hedge against inflation, although its correlation with inflation has weakened over time [13][14]. - Gold's commodity aspect allows it to act as a risk-diversifying asset, often performing well during financial crises and geopolitical tensions [9][15]. Group 3: Current Trends and Market Dynamics - Recent years have seen a significant revaluation of gold, with prices reaching new highs, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards gold amid concerns over the dollar's stability [4][14]. - The relationship between gold prices and real interest rates has changed, with gold prices rising even as real rates increased, indicating a potential decoupling from traditional pricing mechanisms [14][15]. - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have increased their gold reserves significantly, driven by a desire to mitigate risks associated with mainstream currencies [18]. Group 4: Future of the International Monetary System - The article posits that the international monetary system is moving towards a more diversified structure, moving away from a single dollar-centric model [41]. - While gold is being revalued and seen as a store of value, it cannot fulfill the roles of credit money in interest rate adjustment, liquidity provision, and asset pricing [4][41]. - The emergence of digital currencies and regional currency cooperation suggests a gradual shift towards a multi-polar monetary order, rather than a return to the gold standard [41].