银河证券12月FOMC会议点评：降息温和偏鸽 内部分歧扩大

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75% on December 11, aligning with market expectations, and has cumulatively reduced rates by 75 basis points this year. The focus is now on Powell's statements, the dot plot reflecting policy paths, adjustments in economic forecasts, and potential asset purchase programs similar to QE [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes and Market Reactions - The rate cut was largely priced in, shifting market attention to incremental information such as Powell's tone and the dot plot's implications for future policy [2]. - The December statement highlighted a rise in unemployment, indicating a weakening labor market, which justified the rate cut [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Forecast Adjustments - The Fed's economic projections for GDP growth were raised, while inflation expectations were lowered slightly. The unemployment rate forecast was adjusted marginally [5]. - The GDP growth forecasts for 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028 were increased to 1.7%, 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9% respectively, compared to previous estimates [5]. Group 3: Internal Disagreements within the Fed - There is an increasing divide among Fed members, as evidenced by voting outcomes and the dot plot. Three members opposed the rate cut, with differing views on future rate adjustments [4]. - The dot plot showed a more dispersed outlook for the 2026 interest rate path, indicating varied opinions among the 19 Fed members [4]. Group 4: Powell's Statements and Future Outlook - Powell's remarks were generally dovish, noting significant slowing in job growth and a potential negative shift in actual employment growth [6]. - The current interest rate is viewed as close to neutral, with no members advocating for rate hikes at this time [6]. Group 5: Market Implications - The Fed's decision to expand its balance sheet and Powell's dovish stance led to a decline in the dollar index and a rise in risk assets and gold prices [9]. - The outlook for 2026 suggests a potential decline in nominal rates and inflation, with expectations for the 10-year Treasury yield to fall within the 3.8%-4.0% range [9].