After December Cut, The Fed's Next Move Is Far From Certain

Core Points - The Federal Reserve cut its key rate by a quarter-point for the third consecutive meeting, bringing the fed funds rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% [1][2] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the current rate is at the high end of the "neutral" range, suggesting a balance between stimulating the economy and controlling inflation [2] - Fed officials project only one further quarter-point rate cut next year, contingent on incoming economic data and the evolving outlook [3] Economic Implications - The Fed's divided views on rate cuts indicate that upcoming economic reports could influence decisions, particularly if unemployment rises unexpectedly or inflation increases [4][9] - Key reports on inflation and the job market are expected soon, which will provide more clarity on whether further rate cuts are necessary [5] - Financial markets currently price in a 22% chance of a fourth consecutive rate cut in January [6] Internal Fed Dynamics - There was dissent among Fed officials regarding the rate cut, with two members opposing the decision and six others suggesting that keeping rates flat was appropriate [7] - The divided vote reflects the Fed's challenging position of managing rising unemployment alongside accelerating inflation [7][10] - Powell noted that inflation this year has been significantly influenced by tariffs imposed during the previous administration, affecting consumer prices [10][11]