美降息25个基点，明年或只降一次，特朗普：力度不够！

Core Points - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range from 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year and a total reduction of 75 basis points in 2023 [1][2] - The FOMC decided to purchase $40 billion in Treasury securities over the next 30 days to maintain adequate reserve supply [2] - There was a notable division within the FOMC, with 9 members in favor and 3 against the decision, indicating increasing internal disagreements [2] - President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the rate cut, suggesting it could have been larger [2] Economic Outlook - The FOMC emphasized its commitment to achieving maximum employment and maintaining a long-term inflation rate of 2%, while acknowledging heightened uncertainty in the economic outlook [3] - The committee noted rising downside risks in the employment sector, with the unemployment rate projected to remain at 4.4% for next year [5] - Inflation has risen since earlier this year and remains relatively high, with risks skewed towards the upside [6][11] - The FOMC's dot plot indicates a slower pace of rate cuts in the coming year, with only one anticipated 25 basis point cut [7] Employment and Inflation Projections - The FOMC removed the description of the unemployment rate as "low," reflecting increased downside risks in employment [5] - Current indicators suggest that job growth has been overstated by 60,000 positions, with the unemployment rate potentially rising by 0.1%-0.2% [5] - The median projection for PCE inflation is 2.9% for this year and 2.4% for next year, indicating a slight increase in confidence regarding future inflation moderation [11]