中信证券：重视电商快递分化信号，跨境物流优选个股

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry in China is expected to experience a gradual "de-involution" by 2026, with the top two companies leading in volume growth due to accumulated network capabilities and higher operational efficiency [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - By 2026, the top two express delivery companies are projected to maintain a leading growth rate in shipment volume, leveraging their network capabilities and operational efficiencies to enhance cost and service quality advantages [1] - The Chinese express delivery network model is anticipated to expand internationally, leveraging competitive advantages to deeply bind with high-growth e-commerce platforms [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The United States is expected to enter a rate-cutting cycle by 2026, which may signal a recovery in cross-border logistics demand [1] - Limited growth in the supply of wide-body cargo aircraft is likely to support stable long-term contract prices in air freight for 2026 [1]