光大期货：12月11日软商品日报

Sugar Industry - Green Pool forecasts that Thailand's sugar production for the 2025/26 season will increase by 6% year-on-year to 10.7 million tons [2] - For the 2026/27 season, sugar production is expected to decline by 7.5% to 9.9 million tons [2] - Current spot prices from Guangxi Sugar Group range from 5,390 to 5,470 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 20 CNY/ton; Yunnan Sugar Group prices are between 5,320 and 5,360 CNY/ton, while processing plants maintain prices between 5,700 and 5,900 CNY/ton [2][7] - The raw sugar futures market continues to experience fluctuations without new driving factors; domestic spot transactions are average, and with more sugar factories starting production, short-term supply is sufficient, leading to a pessimistic market sentiment [2][7] - The May contract is in a weak consolidation phase, and the market is expected to remain under pressure in the medium term [2][7] Cotton Industry - On Wednesday, ICE cotton rose by 0.41% to close at 64.12 cents per pound, while CF601 increased by 0.15% to 13,780 CNY/ton; the main contract's open interest decreased by 5,219 contracts to 473,300 contracts [8] - The cotton price index for 3128B is 14,590 CNY/ton, up by 20 CNY/ton from the previous day [8] - The Federal Reserve's December meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, but there are divergences in the future rate cut path among committee members, leading to a slight weakening of the dollar index and a small upward shift in cotton futures prices [8] - Domestic cotton prices are currently maintaining a fluctuating trend; the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is being closely monitored [8] - Despite high monthly consumption levels in November, the second half of the month saw a decrease in cotton consumption compared to the first half, indicating a weakening of upward driving factors for cotton prices [8] - The outlook suggests a mixed market with various influencing factors, with a short-term expectation of a fluctuating pattern; however, in the medium to long term, it is believed that the upside potential for cotton prices is greater than the downside [8]