光大期货：12月11日能源化工日报

Oil Market - On Wednesday, oil prices showed a V-shaped recovery, with WTI January contract closing at $58.46 per barrel, up $0.21 (0.36%) [2][16] - Brent February contract closed at $62.21 per barrel, up $0.27 (0.44%) [2][16] - EIA report indicated a decrease in US crude oil inventory by 1.812 million barrels to 425.69 million barrels, against an expected decline of 2.3 million barrels [2][16] - US crude oil net imports increased by 212,000 barrels per day to 2.58 million barrels per day [2][16] - Geopolitical factors, including the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on oil flows and US military actions against a sanctioned Venezuelan tanker, are influencing current oil price movements [2][16] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 0.65% to 2427 yuan per ton [3][17] - Low-sulfur fuel oil contract decreased by 0.17% to 3009 yuan per ton [3][17] - The Asian low-sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to weak downstream demand and high inventory levels [3][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped by 0.24% to 2940 yuan per ton [4][18] - Social inventory rate decreased by 0.56% to 23.86%, while total inventory at domestic refineries increased by 0.21% to 27.21% [4][18] - Winter storage prices for asphalt are expected to decline to near five-year lows, predicted to be between 2800-2900 yuan per ton [4][18] Rubber - The main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 230 yuan per ton to 15215 yuan per ton [5][19] - The border situation between Thailand and Cambodia is expected to reduce rubber production by 487,000 kilograms per day [5][19] - Limited demand support is noted despite a slight rebound in raw material prices [5][19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4616 yuan per ton, down 0.6% [6][20] - PX futures closed at 6746 yuan per ton, down 0.5% [6][20] - The overall supply structure for ethylene glycol is tightening, but long-term inventory pressure remains [6][20] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2078 yuan per ton, with CFR China prices between $241-245 per ton [7][21] - Iranian facility shutdowns are expected to reduce imports in mid-December to January [7][21] - Methanol prices are anticipated to remain stable at the bottom due to limited upside potential [7][21] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China are between 6150-6400 yuan per ton [8][22] - Production margins for various methods of polypropylene production are negative, indicating cost pressures [8][22] - The market is transitioning to a supply-driven environment with high inventory pressure [8][22] PVC - PVC prices in East China decreased, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4300-4420 yuan per ton [9][23] - Supply is expected to remain high while domestic demand is slowing down due to reduced construction activity [9][23] - Overall market sentiment remains bearish, with prices expected to stabilize at lower levels [9][23] Urea - Urea futures showed wide fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 1645 yuan per ton [10][24] - Market prices in Shandong and Henan increased by 10 yuan to 1700 yuan and 1690 yuan respectively [10][24] - The supply situation remains uncertain, with production rates holding steady [10][24] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures continued to weaken, closing at 1094 yuan per ton, down 2.93% [11][25] - The industry operating rate remains at 84.22%, with supply expected to increase [11][25] - Demand is lackluster, with limited large-scale inventory accumulation [11][25] Glass - Glass futures prices continued to decline, closing at 964 yuan per ton, down 2.13% [12][26] - The average price for float glass remained stable at 1097 yuan per ton [12][26] - Market dynamics show weak demand and limited production changes, leading to a bearish outlook [12][26]