美联储如期降息25个基点，时隔三年美联储重启扩表

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut this year, amidst internal divisions within the FOMC regarding the direction of monetary policy [1][10]. Economic Outlook - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with job growth slowing and the unemployment rate slightly increasing as of September [3]. - The Fed has revised its economic growth forecast for this year upward by 0.1 percentage points to 1.7%, and for 2026 and 2027, the growth forecasts have been adjusted to 2.3% and 2.0% respectively [3]. - Inflation remains a concern, with the Fed projecting core PCE growth at 3.0% for 2025, down 0.1 percentage points from previous estimates, and overall PCE growth adjusted to 2.9% for this year [4]. Labor Market - The labor market shows resilience, with the Fed maintaining its unemployment rate projections at 4.5% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026 [4]. - Recent data indicates a trend of low hiring and low layoffs, although there are signals of increasing layoff pressures, with announced layoffs exceeding 1.1 million as of November [11]. Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The Fed has initiated a short-term Treasury bond purchase program to manage market liquidity, starting with $40 billion in purchases [2][8]. - The FOMC's internal divisions are evident, with differing opinions on future rate cuts, as some members advocate for maintaining rates while others support further cuts [6][12]. - Market expectations are increasingly aggressive, with a 72% probability of at least two rate cuts next year, reflecting uncertainty in the Fed's future policy direction [12].