Feng Huang Wang·2025-12-11 01:46Core Viewpoint - The recent price adjustments of high-end liquor brands, particularly Moutai and Wuliangye, indicate a significant shift in the Chinese liquor industry, reflecting broader market pressures and consumer behavior changes [1][4][13]. Price Trends - The wholesale reference price for 25-year Moutai has dropped to 1500 yuan per bottle, just 1 yuan above the official guidance price of 1499 yuan, marking a new historical low [1][5]. - Moutai's price has seen a continuous decline throughout the year, previously exceeding 2200 yuan per bottle at the beginning of the year [5]. - Wuliangye plans to reduce its dealer invoice price from 1019 yuan to 900 yuan starting in 2026, although the factory price remains unchanged [3][7]. Market Dynamics - The price adjustments by Moutai and Wuliangye are viewed as indicators of a potential industry-wide price correction, with analysts suggesting that high-end liquor prices may continue to decline [4][14]. - The current market environment is characterized by high inventory levels and a rational consumer approach, leading to downward pressure on prices [4][10][14]. - The industry is experiencing a "de-financialization" phase, with speculation diminishing as the price gap narrows [6]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the high-end liquor market may see a structural reshaping, with a potential recovery in prices expected around the second quarter of 2026, contingent on economic recovery and genuine consumer demand [4][14]. - The industry is currently in a cautious phase, with companies focusing on reducing channel pressure and adjusting product strategies to maintain profitability [14]. Stock Performance - As of December 10, Moutai's stock closed at 1402.80 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 1.76 trillion yuan, while Wuliangye's stock closed at 111.62 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 433.3 billion yuan [15].