华泰期货：议息会议及交割日后铜价或略有回落

Market Overview - The main copper futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at 91,400 CNY/ton and closed at 91,850 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.83% from the previous trading day [15] - The night session saw the contract open at 92,250 CNY/ton and close at 91,770 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.09% from the afternoon close [15] Spot Market - SMM reported that the 1 electrolytic copper spot price ranged from a discount of 40 CNY/ton to a premium of 100 CNY/ton, with an average premium of 30 CNY/ton, down 65 CNY/ton from the previous day [3] - Copper prices fluctuated between 91,510 CNY/ton and 91,890 CNY/ton, with the monthly import loss narrowing to approximately 1,000 CNY/ton [3] - Due to the upcoming delivery of the 2512 contract and year-end settlements, traders concentrated on selling, leading to a rapid decline in spot premiums [3] Macroeconomic Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%–3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year [4] - The FOMC noted moderate economic expansion, a slowdown in job growth, and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, while inflation remains high [4] - Starting December 12, the Fed will initiate a monthly purchase plan of approximately 40 billion USD in short-term Treasury securities to maintain liquidity in the banking system [4] Mining Developments - Aterian signed a binding joint venture agreement with French AI exploration company Lithosquare to initiate AI-driven exploration on eight copper mining projects in the Kalahari Copper Belt and Anti-Atlas regions, covering a total area of 2,898 square kilometers [6] - Lithosquare will invest 1.4 million euros, with the first phase of 500,000 euros allocated for AI target generation and geophysical surveys [6] Recycling and Import Data - As of December 8, the State Taxation Administration reported that there are 14,800 resource recovery enterprises engaged in "reverse invoicing," with nearly 900 billion CNY in transactions this year [7] - The recycling system in China is becoming increasingly robust, with over 50% year-on-year growth in the recovery of scrapped vehicles in the first ten months of 2025 [7] Consumption Trends - According to Mysteel, domestic copper tube production in November 2025 reached 138,300 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons (13.55%) from October [8] - The overall capacity utilization rate for November was 59.69%, up 7.12% month-on-month, with significant contributions from the Double Eleven shopping festival and project deliveries [8][19] Inventory and Warehouse Data - LME warehouse stocks changed by 1,125 tons to 164,975 tons, while SHFE warehouse stocks decreased by 600 tons to 28,931 tons [19] - As of December 10, domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory stood at 160,300 tons, a slight increase of 1,400 tons from the previous week [19] Strategy Outlook - The current copper price is above 90,000 CNY/ton, but downstream consumption remains relatively weak, leading to a cautious outlook for potential price declines post-FOMC meeting and contract delivery [20]