聚焦反内卷受益板块及高确定性个股

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the transportation sector has underperformed the market, with a notable focus on the impact of anti-involution policies on strong cyclical segments in the second half of the year [1] - The transportation sector's performance as of December 8, 2025, ranks low among Shenwan's primary industries, with road, rail, and port sub-sectors showing weaker performance compared to shipping and aviation [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors benefiting from anti-involution and high-certainty stocks for 2026, suggesting that these trends will likely have a long-term impact on stock prices [1] Group 2 - In the express delivery sector, the anti-involution trend has led to a recovery in profitability, primarily reflected in the continuous increase in single-ticket prices, while the volume growth has significantly slowed down [2] - The report highlights that the express delivery industry is currently in the early stages of an upward cycle, with reduced price competition and a focus on higher service quality among leading companies [2] - Key companies to watch in the express delivery sector include Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express, which are expected to improve profitability [2] Group 3 - The airline sector has shown significant improvement in performance since Q2, driven by lower oil prices and effective supply-side management by airlines [3] - Airlines are expected to maintain a cautious approach to aircraft procurement into 2026, with an upward trend in passenger load factors and revenue per seat kilometer indicating a tightening supply-demand relationship [3] - The report suggests focusing on the three major airlines due to their higher revenue and profit elasticity compared to medium-sized airlines [3] Group 4 - The highway sector has experienced significant stock price adjustments, underperforming the market, primarily due to declining government bond yields and rising market risk appetite [4] - The report recommends focusing on highway companies with high dividend ratios and low debt ratios, as these are expected to attract more market attention in the near future [4] - Specific companies highlighted for their favorable characteristics include Wantong Expressway, Guangdong Expressway A, and China Merchants Expressway, with a note on Ninghu Expressway for stable dividend requirements [4]