不锈钢：盘面震荡为主 供应压力稍缓库存去化不足

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing price stability with cautious downstream purchasing, while supply pressures remain high and demand is weak, leading to limited inventory depletion [3] Supply - In November, the crude steel output of 43 domestic stainless steel plants is estimated at 3.4592 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 61,800 tons (1.6% decline) but a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - December's stainless steel crude steel output is projected to be 3.2857 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.02% and a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - The production of the 300 series is expected to be 1.7147 million tons in December, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.6% [2] - Steel mills are facing limited production cuts, with increased maintenance schedules towards year-end potentially leading to more proactive reductions due to loss pressures [2] Inventory - Social inventory depletion is insufficient, with a trend of decline in warehouse receipts [2] - As of December 5, social inventory of the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 492,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2,800 tons [2] - On December 10, stainless steel futures inventory is 61,498 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 839 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight strengthening towards the end of the trading day, while high-price transactions are limited due to cautious purchasing [3] - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike and domestic policy adjustments, with upcoming central economic work meetings to be monitored [3] - Nickel ore market remains stable, with Philippine mines primarily fulfilling previous orders and no new tenders from northern mines [3] - Nickel-iron transaction prices have risen to around 900 yuan per nickel (tax included), indicating a slight recovery in iron plant profits [3] - Demand remains weak in the off-season, particularly in the home appliance and construction decoration sectors, leading to limited order releases and low inventory depletion [3]