钢材：市场情绪好转 钢价止跌 预期维持震荡走势

Pricing - Prices are strengthening while the basis is weakening, with Tangshan steel billet increasing by 40 to 3040 yuan, Shanghai rebar up by 40 to 3130 yuan/ton, and hot rolled coil rising by 40 to 3300 yuan/ton, with May contract basis at -13 yuan/ton and -17 yuan/ton respectively [1] Cost and Profit - On the cost side, coking coal prices have dropped significantly, while iron ore remains relatively strong. Recent declines in coal prices have weakened support for coking coal. Steel mill profits have slightly recovered from low levels, but are expected to remain low during the off-season. Current profit rankings from high to low are cold rolled > steel billet > hot rolled > rebar [1] Supply - From January to November, iron element output increased by 4.1% year-on-year, with an expected annual growth of 4%. Hot metal production continues to decline, down by 24,000 tons to 2.32 million tons. Seasonal production cuts due to high steel inventory are affecting steel mills, with slight increases in the production of five major materials. Total production decreased by 26,700 tons to 8.29 million tons, with rebar production down by 17,000 tons to 1.89 million tons, below the required 2.17 million tons. Hot rolled production decreased by 5,000 tons to 3.14 million tons, close to the required 3.15 million tons. Rebar maintains a significant supply-demand gap, allowing for continued destocking, while hot rolled supply and demand are balanced, leading to slow inventory reduction [1] Demand - Analyzing demand structure, domestic demand expectations remain weak, while exports are holding at high levels, supported by low prices for steel exports. November apparent demand increased to 8.77 million tons from 8.66 million tons in October, but is weaker year-on-year compared to last year's 8.81 million tons. December apparent demand is expected to weaken seasonally, with a decrease of 240,000 tons to 8.64 million tons. Both rebar and hot rolled apparent demand have declined, with rebar down by 110,000 tons to 2.17 million tons and hot rolled down by 54,000 tons to 3.15 million tons [2] Inventory - This week, inventory reduction is acceptable, with total inventory of five major materials down by 350,000 tons to 13.66 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 280,000 tons to 5.04 million tons, while hot rolled inventory slightly decreased by 5,000 tons to 4 million tons. The reduction in hot rolled production is not significant, and supply-demand remains balanced, leading to slow inventory reduction [3] Market Outlook - Influenced by potential support for Vanke, expectations for the real estate sector are improving, leading to a low-level price increase in the black series. The recent dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, including interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion, is expected to boost market sentiment. Previous declines in steel prices were primarily driven by falling raw material coking coal prices. The steel market fundamentals show a trend of production cuts and inventory reduction, but overall demand strength is average, with year-on-year demand declines and a downward cycle in hot metal production suppressing raw material prices. Steel prices are expected to remain volatile, with rebar and hot rolled prices to be monitored within the ranges of 3000-3200 yuan and 3200-3350 yuan respectively. Considering the divergence in inventory reduction between rebar and hot rolled, the January rebar-hot rolled spread arbitrage can continue to be held, while the long rebar and short iron ore arbitrage should exit [4]