国债期货：资金面延续宽松 期债震荡回升

Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.30% to 112.790, the 10-year main contract up by 0.06% to 108.030, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.06% to 105.825, and the 2-year main contract gaining 0.04% to 102.456 [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 10-year China Development Bank bond "25国开15" yield down by 1.10 basis points to 1.9050%, while the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" yield increased by 0.1 basis points to 1.8360%, and the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债06" yield decreased by 1.25 basis points to 2.2410% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 1,898 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation on December 10, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, and the full bid amount was accepted [2] - On the same day, 793 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 1,105 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market liquidity is more abundant, with the weighted average rate of DR001 dropping by 1 basis point to below 1.29%, and overnight quotes for anonymous (X-REPO) falling to 1.25% [2] Economic Fundamentals - China's November CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, matching expectations, and up from 0.2% in the previous month; the PPI fell by 2.2% year-on-year, slightly worse than the expected decline of 2% [3] - The increase in CPI is primarily driven by a turnaround in food prices, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.2% year-on-year [3] - The PPI's year-on-year decline is influenced by domestic supply-demand structure optimization and international commodity price transmission, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [3] Operational Recommendations - The December Politburo meeting emphasized "quality and efficiency" and "counter-cyclical and cross-cycle policies," indicating that there may not be significant increases in counter-cyclical policies, and total policies like rate cuts may be cautious [4] - The current 10-year government bond faces resistance around the 1.85% level, while the T2603 contract may find support near 107.6 [4] - The market sentiment has stabilized, and the pressure on the bond market may have passed; if year-end institutional rebalancing concludes and incremental policies do not meet expectations, a rebound in the bond market may occur [4]