人民币持续走强，上市公司扎堆套保对冲汇率波动风险

Group 1 - The US dollar index has declined by over 8% this year, leading to increased demand for foreign exchange hedging among companies involved in overseas business as the RMB approaches the critical 7.0 level [1][2] - Several A-share companies have significantly increased their foreign exchange hedging quotas, with China Shipbuilding announcing a trading limit of up to $24 billion and CATL adjusting its hedging limit to a maximum of 260 billion yuan [2] - Over 30 A-share companies have announced plans to engage in foreign exchange hedging to mitigate risks associated with currency fluctuations, with a primary focus on hedging exchange rate risks [2] Group 2 - The demand for exchange rate risk management is rising as companies face various risks in global markets, including policy changes, demand fluctuations, and supply chain issues [3] - For export-dependent manufacturing firms, RMB appreciation may reduce price competitiveness, while industries reliant on imported raw materials could benefit from lower procurement costs due to currency fluctuations [3] - The primary currencies for pricing and settlement in foreign-related business among listed companies remain USD, EUR, GBP, and JPY, with SWIFT data indicating that as of September 2025, the international payment shares for these currencies are 47.79%, 22.77%, and 7.38% respectively [3] Group 3 - The RMB has strengthened against the USD since late November, driven by expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a significant decline in the dollar [4] - Analysts predict that the RMB may experience a strong performance in 2025, potentially breaking the 7.0 level against the USD due to a favorable external environment and a projected current account surplus [4] - By the end of 2026, if the annualized exchange rate volatility remains between 3.0% and 4.0%, the RMB/USD exchange rate could reach between 6.70 and 6.80 [4]