联储决议前夕震荡整理 政策分歧主导后市方向

Core Viewpoint - The market is focused on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut, which could weaken the dollar and provide upward momentum for the euro against the dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Expectations - Investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, leading to limited upward momentum for the euro against the dollar [1]. - The market has largely priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with potential for significant dissent within the committee [1]. - The dot plot of interest rate forecasts and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be crucial in determining market direction [1]. Group 2: Eurozone Economic Context - Eurozone inflation appears stable, and the economy is running moderately, allowing the European Central Bank to maintain its current interest rates [1]. - In contrast to the Fed's potential shift towards a more accommodative policy, the Eurozone's economic conditions provide a different backdrop [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Euro to Dollar Exchange Rate - A double bottom pattern is forming for the euro against the dollar, with the market rejecting the support range of 1.1623-1.1618 [2]. - If the price breaks above 1.1664, it would signal a bullish trend, while a drop below 1.1618 would indicate a bearish signal [2]. - A price above 1.1650 would suggest a departure from the current downward trend [2]. Group 4: Political Risks in Eurozone - Political developments in France pose potential downside risks, as the passage of a significant social security budget faces obstacles, indicating fiscal risks may persist into 2026 [1].