英国央行决议窗口期临近

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is currently in a narrow fluctuation pattern, with market focus on the policy directions of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which are expected to significantly influence the exchange rate [1] Group 1: Recent Performance - Since November, the GBP/USD has shown resilience, with a cumulative increase of 0.63% for the month, continuing a strong trend observed throughout the year [1] - The strength of the GBP is supported by dual factors: the rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and positive developments in the UK economy [1][2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Market expectations indicate an 87% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in December, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%–3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year [1] - Despite the consensus on a rate cut, there are expectations for a "hawkish cut" signal from the Fed, suggesting a potential pause in easing by early 2026 due to persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market [1] Group 3: UK Economic Factors - The UK Chancellor's announcement of a £26 billion tax increase to address the fiscal gap has alleviated concerns about government debt management, boosting investor confidence in the sustainability of UK finances [2] - The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has raised the 2025 economic growth forecast from 1% to 1.5%, providing solid support for the GBP [2] - UK inflation is declining, with October CPI at 3.6% year-on-year, but remains above the 2% target, which may limit the pace of rate cuts by the Bank of England [2] Group 4: Market Expectations for the Bank of England - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding the Bank of England's December policy direction, with an 88% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut predicted by institutions like Goldman Sachs [2] - However, some investors believe that high inflation and improved fiscal policy may lead the Bank of England to slow down the rate cut pace [2] Group 5: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD is in a "waiting for a breakout" pattern, having maintained a steady upward trend over the past three weeks, supported by the 10-day moving average [3] - The exchange rate has broken above the 200-day moving average at 1.3326 but faces resistance near the 100-day moving average at 1.3365 [3] - The current trading range is between 1.3250 and 1.3350, with potential upward movement if the rate breaks through the 1.3370-1.3380 resistance zone [3] Group 6: Future Focus - Key upcoming events include the Federal Reserve's meeting results and the Bank of England's decision on December 18, which will be crucial for the GBP/USD outlook [4] - If the Federal Reserve cuts rates with a dovish statement and the Bank of England unexpectedly maintains rates, the GBP/USD may break through key resistance levels [4] - Conversely, if the Bank of England cuts rates while the Federal Reserve issues a hawkish statement, the exchange rate may test lower boundaries [4]