瑞士央行政策震荡寻方向

Core Viewpoint - The current market focus is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the Swiss National Bank's policy path, with expectations of a hawkish rate cut from the Fed and a stable rate from the Swiss central bank [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with a probability of 87.6%, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75% [1] - There is increasing internal disagreement among Fed members, with five opposing the rate cut, leading to expectations of a "hawkish rate cut" that may suggest a pause in easing by early 2026, providing some support for the dollar [1] Group 2: Swiss National Bank Insights - The Swiss National Bank is expected to maintain its interest rate at 0.25%, having already cut rates five times previously [1] - The SNB's stance is supported by slightly higher-than-expected potential inflation in Switzerland and external factors such as Germany's fiscal plans, indicating the end of the current rate cut cycle, which limits the upside potential for the dollar against the Swiss franc [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/CHF pair is currently in a consolidation phase within the 0.7970-0.8020 range, with MACD indicators showing balanced buying and selling forces [2] - A breakout above the 0.8020 resistance could lead to testing the 0.8050 level, while a drop below the 0.7970 support may see further declines towards 0.7950 [2] - Future focus will be on the Fed's meeting statement and Powell's remarks, with expectations that a hawkish signal could support the dollar index and push USD/CHF above the current range [2]