白银再创新高，引崩盘担忧！分析师却称“这次不一样”

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged to a ten-year high following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 116%, raising concerns of a potential market crash similar to past events in 1980 and 2011, but analysts believe the current market dynamics are fundamentally different [1][3]. Group 1: Reasons for Silver Price Increase - The recent rise in silver prices is attributed to renewed expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and low inventory levels at the London Metal Exchange (LME) [3]. - From December last year to early this year, silver moved from Europe to the U.S. due to tariff concerns, resulting in a 16% decrease in LME silver inventory, totaling 4,330 tons [3]. - The influx of funds into silver ETFs has led to a situation where LME inventories are insufficient to meet demand, contributing to upward pressure on silver prices [3][4]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry has become the strongest driver of silver demand, increasing its share from 8.1% in 2021 to an expected 17% in 2024 [4]. - Industrial demand for silver is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6.5% from 2021 to 2024, driven by applications in high-tech sectors such as electric vehicles and AI [4]. - Global silver production is expected to decline to 820 million ounces in 2024, significantly below historical peaks, exacerbating supply shortages [4]. Group 3: Differences from Previous Price Surges - The current silver market is characterized by a strategic resource attribute due to U.S. government policies, marking a significant difference from past surges [6]. - The U.S. Geological Survey has included silver in its list of critical minerals, indicating heightened policy risks compared to gold, which may impact physical silver trade and regional inventory management [6][7]. - Unlike the speculative-driven surges of 1980 and 2011, the current rise is supported by supply-demand imbalances and robust industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector [7]. Group 4: Short-term and Mid-term Outlook - Analysts express caution regarding short-term volatility in silver prices, suggesting that speculative trading may amplify price fluctuations [9]. - Despite short-term risks, the medium-term outlook remains optimistic, with expectations of continued demand from precious metal ETFs and a supportive supply-demand dynamic [9][10]. - The silver price is anticipated to exhibit a high-volatility, stair-step upward trend, with ongoing supply shortages likely to sustain price support [10].