“供给端优化”＋“需求端扩张”推动价格回暖，聚焦石化ETF（159731）布局价值

Group 1 - The A-share market opened high but declined, with the Petrochemical ETF (159731) narrowing its gains, and stocks like Kuncai Technology, Cangge Mining, and Tongcheng New Materials showing mixed performance [1] - According to Xinda Securities, petrochemical products have a high weight and strong volatility in the PPI composition, and their price changes are strongly correlated with PPI trends. Recent policy efforts focusing on "supply-side optimization" and "demand-side expansion" are expected to drive a recovery in petrochemical product prices, aiding PPI stabilization [1] - Although PPI has not yet turned positive, stock prices in the petrochemical downstream have shown signs of stabilization and recovery, indicating a good time for investment [1] Group 2 - From the supply side, Xinda Securities anticipates that marginal increases in refining capacity will gradually slow, leading the industry into a phase of stock competition, which may improve the overall competitive landscape. Optimizing the petrochemical capacity structure will provide crucial support for further price recovery [1] - On the demand side, domestic refined oil demand has peaked, and the transformation of oil consumption structure may deepen. However, the demand for chemical oil remains in a long-term growth trajectory, suggesting a slow recovery in domestic petrochemical product demand will likely be the main trend [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.39% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.71%. Continuous improvement in supply and demand dynamics is expected to sustain the upward trend in the industry [1]