2026年制冷剂配额公示，年底配额调整幅度较小

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of the 2026 refrigerant quota indicates a long-term constraint on the supply side for both second and third-generation refrigerants, suggesting a continued favorable outlook for the refrigerant product market [2][3]. Summary by Category Regulatory Developments - On December 9, 2025, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment published the public notice regarding the issuance of production, use, and import quotas for ozone-depleting substances and hydrofluorocarbons for 2026, accepting applications from 38 companies for second-generation refrigerants and 65 companies for third-generation refrigerants [3][4]. - The production quota for second-generation refrigerants is set to decrease by 71.5% and the usage quota by 76.1% compared to baseline values, with R22 production quota reduced by 3005 tons, a 2.02% year-on-year decrease [4][5]. Quota Details - The total production quota for third-generation refrigerants in 2026 is 797,800 tons, an increase of 5,963 tons compared to the beginning of 2025. Specific refrigerants such as R32, R125, and R134a have seen increases, while R143a, R152a, and R227ea have experienced reductions [2][5]. - The production quota for second-generation refrigerants totals 151,400 tons, a decrease of 12,100 tons from 2025, with R22 production quota at 146,100 tons, down 3,005 tons [5][6]. Market Outlook - The tightening of refrigerant quotas is viewed as a long-term trend, with expectations that the market for mainstream refrigerants like R32, R134a, and R125 will remain favorable, with significant potential for price increases [2][6]. - The flexibility in quota adjustments for production companies, allowing for changes within a 30% limit, enhances the adaptability of firms in managing their production [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - The ongoing reduction in second-generation refrigerants and the continuation of third-generation refrigerant quota systems suggest a positive outlook for companies with strong positions in the refrigerant market. Key companies to watch include Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. [2][6].