Sugar Prices Undercut by Weakness in the Brazilian Real

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices have declined to three-week lows due to increased production in major producing countries and a weaker Brazilian real, which encourages exports [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Sugar Production and Supply - Indian sugar production from October to November increased by 43% year-on-year to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT), with 428 sugar mills crushing cane as of November 30, up from 376 a year ago [2]. - Brazil's sugar production forecast for 2025/26 was raised to 45 MMT, with a reported 8.7% year-on-year increase in sugar output in the first half of November [3]. - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for 2025/26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [4]. Group 2: Price Trends and Market Impact - Sugar prices have been under pressure since early October, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar hitting a 5-year low due to higher output and expectations of a global surplus [5]. - Czarnikow increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, reflecting a growing supply outlook [5]. - India's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 was raised to 31 MMT, an 18.8% year-on-year increase, which may enhance India's export capacity [6].