可能执掌美联储的会是哪个哈塞特

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. monetary policy is at a historic crossroads, facing challenges from persistent inflation and weak employment, with strong indications that Kevin Hassett is the leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair [1]. Group 1: Candidate Profile - Kevin Hassett, the current Director of the National Economic Council, has seen his chances of becoming the next Fed Chair rise sharply, with predictions showing his probability exceeding 85% [1]. - Hassett has a mixed background as an economist and a political figure, which could be both an asset and a source of concern for the market [1]. - He holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and has extensive experience in both academia and policy-making, including a tenure at the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 2: Research and Policy Influence - Hassett's core research area has been fiscal taxation, particularly focusing on how tax policies can significantly influence corporate investment decisions [4]. - He has advocated for lower corporate tax rates to enhance global competitiveness, which laid the groundwork for the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act [4]. - His views on asset pricing and tax policy have been influential, arguing that tax reductions can lead to asset price revaluation and increased shareholder wealth [4][5]. Group 3: Political Background and Controversies - Before joining the Trump administration, Hassett built political capital within the Republican establishment, serving as an economic advisor for several presidential campaigns [8]. - As Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, he was a key architect of the 2017 tax reform, which reduced the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% [9]. - His controversial predictions during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly regarding the economic recovery and death toll, have raised concerns about his reliance on data and objectivity [10][11]. Group 4: Potential Impact on Monetary Policy - Concerns have emerged regarding Hassett's potential impact on the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly his alignment with political narratives and criticism of the current Fed's policies [15]. - The market is wary of the possibility that Hassett may prioritize political objectives over economic data, potentially leading to misguided monetary policy decisions [12][15]. - His approach to financial regulation is expected to favor deregulation, which could significantly benefit the banking sector and influence market dynamics [16]. Group 5: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The financial market is reacting positively to Hassett's potential nomination, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities [16]. - There are concerns about the "shadow chair" effect if Hassett is nominated before Powell's term ends, which could lead to market volatility based on his public statements [16]. - The outcome of Hassett's nomination process will likely shape the future direction of U.S. monetary policy and market risk preferences, with significant implications for inflation and economic stability [18].