利率下行，风险上行——2025年12月美联储议息会议点评

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations, despite inflation not returning to target levels [1][2] - The labor market is showing signs of moderate deterioration, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, and companies are reducing hiring due to cost and demand pressures [1][2] - A recent paper from the San Francisco Fed suggests that tariff increases may not raise inflation as traditionally expected, but rather shrink demand and suppress inflation [1][3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. economy is experiencing a dichotomy, with the Federal Reserve facing internal divisions regarding the impact of tariffs on prices and economic activity [5] - Consumer confidence is declining across various demographic groups, although the stock market's performance, driven by AI-related companies, supports spending among wealthier consumers [6] - The Fed is expected to lower interest rates by a total of 50-75 basis points by 2026 to return to a neutral level around 3%, in response to ongoing trade policy and fiscal uncertainties [1][6]