Sugar Prices Fall as the Brazilian Real Weakens

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices have declined to three-week lows due to increased production in major producing countries and a weaker Brazilian real, which encourages exports [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 closed down -1.01% and March London ICE white sugar 5 closed down -0.90% [1]. - Sugar prices have been under pressure since early October, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar hitting a 5-year low [5]. Group 2: Production Insights - Indian sugar production from October to November increased by 43% year-on-year to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT) [2]. - Brazil's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 was raised to 45 MMT, with a reported 8.7% year-on-year increase in sugar output in the first half of November [3]. - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raised its 2025/26 India sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, an 18.8% year-on-year increase [6]. Group 3: Global Supply Outlook - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for 2025/26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [4]. - Czarnikow increased its global 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to 8.7 MMT, reflecting a growing supply outlook [5].