消费长期“深蹲” 明年能否“起跳”？丨每日研选

Group 1 - The retail sector is experiencing significant activity, with multiple concept stocks hitting the limit up, coinciding with the National Retail Innovation Development Conference, signaling potential recovery for the long-pressured sector as it approaches the 2026 Spring Festival [1] - The Ministry of Commerce emphasized the importance of the retail industry in building a complete domestic demand system and promoting high-quality development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on quality and service-driven growth [1] - Various institutions are optimistic about the consumer sector in 2026, driven by policies aimed at boosting consumption, such as subsidies for appliances, automobiles, and local dining [1] Group 2 - The current macro environment is favorable for offline retail, with declining rental costs providing marginal benefits, while the unique value of offline retail is being redefined, emphasizing social interaction and immersive experiences [2] - The shift towards consumer-centric models, as seen in the practices of companies like Yonghui and the praised model of Pang Donglai, highlights a return to valuing human connections and quality service [2] - The retail landscape is evolving with the rise of various online channels, including Douyin and community group buying, indicating that the channel structure is still in flux and presents opportunities for transformation [2] Group 3 - From an investment perspective, the strategy of valuation switching is seen as a reliable approach, with performance growth being a key driver for this transition [3] - Continuous growth and the reversal of difficulties are critical dimensions for valuation switching and recovery, with a focus on the liquor sector as a significant area of interest [3] Group 4 - The profound transformation in the retail industry is expected to create multiple investment opportunities across various channels, particularly in the health and functional food sectors, driven by channel shifts and the expansion of consumer demographics [4] - Leading snack companies with strong supply chains and product-channel resonance are likely to benefit from increased market concentration in the new landscape [4] - High-quality chain retail formats with excellent operational models are positioned to explore new store types and expand growth potential as the main business recovers [4]