【大行报告】景顺赵耀庭：美联储面临的政治压力短期内不太可能消退

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential interest rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its implications for the U.S. economy and markets, highlighting political pressures and expected economic growth driven by upcoming legislation [1]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Stephen Miran, a recent appointee by President Trump to the FOMC, supports a 50 basis points rate cut, while Trump advocates for a cut greater than 25 basis points [1]. - The political pressure on the Federal Reserve is expected to persist in the short term, especially with Powell's anticipated retirement on May 15, 2026 [1]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Despite indications from the Federal Reserve that rate cuts may be fewer than market expectations over the next year, the economy is projected to remain robust [1]. - The "One Big Beautiful Bill" legislation is expected to stimulate U.S. economic growth, potentially exceeding initial forecasts [1]. Group 3: Market Implications - The U.S. stock market is anticipated to continue its upward trend until 2026, with a more diverse range of leading sectors [1]. - Rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, combined with improvements in nominal economic growth, are seen as favorable for small and medium-sized enterprises [1]. - A weaker dollar is likely to result from the Fed's rate cuts, which could benefit emerging market stocks and local currency bonds [1].