“十五五”小众能源十大看点：分布式天然气、生物质能、地热供暖……

Core Viewpoint - Niche energy sources in China, including distributed natural gas, biomass energy, geothermal energy, and ocean energy, are gaining strategic importance in the context of the "dual carbon" goals and the critical period of the 14th Five-Year Plan, potentially becoming significant supplements to mainstream energy sources and supporting energy security and ecological protection [1] Group 1: Distributed Natural Gas - Distributed natural gas can provide multi-energy supply with a comprehensive energy utilization rate exceeding 70%, but its development is constrained by high costs and dependence on external sources [3] - The cost of gas-electricity integration ranges from 0.59 to 0.72 yuan per kilowatt-hour, significantly higher than mainstream energy sources [3] - Policy incentives, such as the revised "Natural Gas Utilization Management Measures" and the peak production plan for gas peak-shaving power stations, are expected to drive the growth of distributed natural gas [3] Group 2: Biomass Energy - Biomass energy, derived from organic waste, has a low utilization rate of 11.8% in China, but is expected to accelerate development due to renewable energy replacement actions [5] - By the end of 2024, biomass power generation capacity is projected to reach 45.99 million kilowatts, with an annual generation exceeding 208.3 billion kilowatt-hours [5] - The development of biomass energy should focus on integrating it into renewable energy strategies and expanding applications in hydrogen production and cellulose ethanol [5] Group 3: Biomass Power Generation - Biomass power generation includes agricultural, forestry, and waste biomass, with installed capacities of 17.09 million kilowatts, 27.38 million kilowatts, and 2.52 million kilowatts respectively by 2024 [7] - The sector faces challenges such as subsidy reductions, unstable fuel supply chains, and low efficiency [7] - Solutions include promoting new technologies, standardizing operations, and exploring new profit models [7] Group 4: Biomass Co-firing - Biomass co-firing is identified as a key method for reducing carbon emissions in coal power plants, with projects demonstrating significant CO2 reduction [10] - The annual biomass resource generation in China exceeds 9 billion tons, and a 60% recovery rate could meet energy needs [10] - The integration of biomass energy with carbon capture technology is recognized as a core path to carbon neutrality [10] Group 5: Geothermal Heating - Geothermal heating is positioned as a crucial clean heating solution for northern cities, with a projected heating area of nearly 900 million square meters by 2025 [12] - Currently, 95% of heating relies on fossil fuels, contributing to significant carbon emissions [12] - Geothermal energy can be integrated with other renewable sources to create demonstration projects that reduce dependency on single resources [12] Group 6: Geothermal Power Generation - China's geothermal power generation capacity is currently only 61.47 megawatts, ranking 19th globally [14] - The development is hindered by economic factors, resource concentration in less developed areas, and inadequate policies [14] - To catch up, efforts should focus on technology breakthroughs, cost reduction, and policy improvements [14] Group 7: Hot Dry Rock Power Generation - Hot dry rock resources in China are substantial, with a potential to meet energy needs for 4,000 years [16] - The technology is still in the early stages of commercialization, facing challenges in extraction and cost [16] - If breakthroughs are achieved during the 14th Five-Year Plan, hot dry rock power could become a disruptive energy source [16] Group 8: Ocean Energy - Ocean energy, including tidal and wave energy, has a potential development capacity of 650 million kilowatts [18] - Recent advancements have positioned China as a leader in ocean energy technology [18] - The sector is still in the demonstration phase, with high costs and technical challenges to overcome [18] Group 9: Integrated Development - The integration of ocean energy with other sectors, such as desalination and offshore oil and gas platforms, is being promoted [21] - Successful pilot projects have demonstrated the potential for cost reduction and resource efficiency [21] - The focus during the 14th Five-Year Plan should be on developing large-scale demonstration projects to drive industry growth [21] Group 10: Combustible Ice - Combustible ice resources in the South China Sea are equivalent to 65 billion tons of oil, with potential for over 130 years of supply [23] - The main challenges include high extraction costs and ecological protection [23] - A technological breakthrough in extraction could significantly enhance the prospects for combustible ice as a marine energy source [23]